Pandemics

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50% death rate

Postby holley on Wed May 29, 2013 7:58 pm

Middle East Coronavirus Called 'Threat To The Entire World'

http://www.npr.org/blogs/health/2013/05 ... n=20130529
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Death in UK

Postby holley on Thu Jul 04, 2013 3:15 pm

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Not yet....

Postby holley on Fri Jul 05, 2013 8:38 am

Coronavirus not global threat...yet:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-23179570
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WHO's on........

Postby holley on Tue Jul 09, 2013 10:33 am

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Ready or not......

Postby holley on Sat Jul 13, 2013 9:36 am

The Hajj is around the corner. Millions will make the required pilgrimage at a time when MERS is nascent in Saudi Arabia (which pulled in 10 billion from the event last year). Precautions are advised (wear a mask, postpone if old/sick).

A coronavirus of unknown transmission and origin with great lethality is slouching towards Bethlehem to become airborne.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OEunVObSnVM
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H1N1 Strikes Again

Postby holley on Wed Feb 26, 2014 7:01 pm

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Ebola

Postby holley on Thu Apr 10, 2014 2:53 pm

Africa is bracing against an unprecedented outbreak of the deadly ebola virus. Guinea is the country affected the worst by the viral hemorrhagic fever. Since January, 86 people have died from it, out of 137 cases.

Shutting down the body’s immune system, ebola is highly contagious, transmitted by contact with the fluids of infected people or animals.

Epidemiologist Michel Van Herp, in Guinea with the non-governmental organisation MSF (Doctors Without Borders) said: “We are facing a scale that has never been seen before, looking at the number of cases in different areas.”

Death tolls in the past have been higher than in Guinea so far, such as in the Democratic Republic of Congo in 2001 and Uganda the year before. But this time cases have been found far apart, not geographically concentrated. MSF describes ebola as one of the world’s deadliest diseases. There is no cure.
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Re: Pandemics

Postby holley on Thu Aug 28, 2014 8:07 pm

The Ebola outbreak in West Africa is going to get worse before it gets better, according to the top US public health official.

Ebola Virus Disease (EVD)
Symptoms include high fever, bleeding and central nervous system damage
Fatality rate can reach 90% - but current outbreak has mortality rate of about 55%
Incubation period is two to 21 days
There is no vaccine or cure
Supportive care such as rehydrating patients who have diarrhoea and vomiting can help recovery
Fruit bats, a delicacy for some West Africans, are considered to be virus's natural host
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Re: Pandemics

Postby holley on Fri Sep 05, 2014 10:04 pm

"Sierra Leone - one of the countries worst hit by West Africa's Ebola outbreak - has announced a four-day lockdown to try to tackle the disease.

From 18 to 21 September people will not be allowed to leave their homes, a senior official said.

The aim of the move is to allow health workers to isolate new cases to prevent the disease from spreading further.

The outbreak has killed about 2,100 people in Sierra Leone, Liberia, Guinea and Nigeria in recent months.

The World Health Organization (WHO) announced on Friday that health workers could be given vaccines as from November, when safety tests are completed.

More than 20 health workers have lost their lives to the virus in Sierra Leone since the start of the outbreak in March."
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Song for Ebola

Postby holley on Wed Oct 15, 2014 9:11 pm

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The death of bodywork

Postby holley on Sun Nov 02, 2014 11:18 am

If Ebola or Swine Flu become pandemic, massage therapists will go the way of chimney sweeps.
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Re: Pandemics

Postby relaxgal on Fri Nov 14, 2014 12:41 pm

IMO all these 'modern pandemics' are fakes. Manufactured in labs to keep the cash flow running for corporations. I'm a conspiracy theory freak :))))
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You are not nearly scared enough

Postby holley on Thu Dec 04, 2014 7:15 am

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... a_outbreak

"Let's be clear: Absolutely no drug or vaccine has been proven effective against the Ebola virus in human beings. To date, only one person -- Dr. Kent Brantly -- has apparently recovered after receiving one of the three prominent putative drugs, and there is no proof that the drug was key to his improvement. None of the potential vaccines has even undergone Phase One safety trials in humans, though at least two are scheduled to enter that stage before December of this year. And Phase One is the swiftest, easiest part of new vaccine trials -- the two stages of clinical trials aimed at proving that vaccines actually work will be difficult, if not impossible, to ethically and safely execute. If one of the vaccines is ready to be used in Africa sometime in 2015, the measure will be executed without prior evidence that it can work, which in turn will require massive public education to ensure that people who receive the vaccination do not change their behaviors in ways that might put them in contact with Ebola -- because they mistakenly believe they are immune to the virus."
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No need to panic....but we need to get going

Postby holley on Fri Jun 05, 2015 1:58 pm

"In 2014, the world avoided a global outbreak of Ebola, thanks to thousands of selfless health workers — plus, frankly, some very good luck. In hindsight, we know what we should have done better. So, now's the time, Bill Gates suggests, to put all our good ideas into practice, from scenario planning to vaccine research to health worker training. As he says, "There's no need to panic ... but we need to get going."

https://us-mg6.mail.yahoo.com/neo/launc ... #872007818
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c'est les microbes qui auront le dernier mot."

Postby holley on Mon May 15, 2017 2:00 pm

By Jason Beaubien

"Gentlemen, it is the microbes who will have the last word."

That comment from 19th century disease fighter Louis Pasteur is not what you'd expect to see at the start of a report from some of the world's top public health officials. But the report itself has a stinging message: We're not prepared for the next coming plague or pandemic — or HIV 2.0.

That report, titled "The Neglected Dimension of Global Security," comes from a commission put together last year by the National Academy of Medicine.

The commission says future pandemics have the potential to kill millions and cause economic losses in the trillions of dollars.

"Pandemics represent a real threat to human security," says Peter Sands, the chair of the Commission on a Global Health Risk Framework for the Future. "They will happen and we need to be able to contain them."

The report predicts that new diseases will emerge even faster in the 21st century than they did in the 19th.
The commission of 17 public health officials from around the globe sums it up this way: "A range of factors, including increasing population, economic globalization, environmental degradation and ever increasing human interaction around the globe are changing the dynamics of infectious disease."

Sands says the Ebola outbreak of 2014-15 was a wake-up call. It showed that the world is not prepared to deal with a rapidly spreading disease.

"The alerts were raised too slowly. Local health systems were quickly overwhelmed. The international response was slow and clumsy," he says. "We lacked many of the medical products we needed, either therapeutic or vaccination or indeed even effective diagnostics."

This report argues that the world needs to better position itself for the next pandemics.

If the world were to invest roughly $4.5 billion a year, the authors estimate economic losses of $60 billion a year from future pandemics could be avoided.

The bulk of the money would go to bolster health care systems in low- and middle-income countries. An additional $1 billion would be poured into medical research for potentially dangerous diseases.

If an outbreak like the Spanish flu of 1918, which killed more than 50 million, were to happen today, the economic damage would be in the trillions of dollars. And the psychological toll could make things worse. Sands says news of a deadly, highly contagious pathogen could prompt people all over the world to panic.

"We are much more connected not just physically but by media nowadays," he says. "Hearing about and seeing infectious disease outbreaks on TV can spread fear even more rapidly than the disease itself. That in turn can grow changes in behavior and policy which magnify the economic impact."

The commission argues that the world ignores the threat of future pandemics at its own peril. "We need to step up our game," as Sands puts it — just as Pasteur did when he invented the first vaccines for rabies and anthrax.








http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsod ... -a-prophet
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Pale Rider

Postby holley on Sun May 28, 2017 4:34 pm

BY EARLY 1920, nearly two years after the end of the first world war and the first outbreak of Spanish flu, the disease had killed as many as 100m people— more than both world wars combined. Yet few would name it as the biggest disaster of the 20th century. Some call it the “forgotten flu”. Almost a century on, “Pale Rider”, a scientific and historic account of Spanish flu, addresses this collective amnesia.


http://www.economist.com/news/books-and ... einhistory
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Here we go....again

Postby holley on Mon Jan 29, 2018 9:06 am

“The flu can kill tens of millions of people. In 1918, that’s exactly what it did.
The flu arrived as a great war raged in Europe, a conflict that would leave about 20 million people dead over four years.
In 1918, the flu would kill more than twice that number — and perhaps five times as many — in just 15 months. Though mostly forgotten, it has been called “the greatest medical holocaust in history.”
Experts believe between 50 and 100 million people were killed. More than two-thirds of them died in a single 10-week period in the autumn of 1918.
Never have so many died so swiftly from a single disease. In the United States alone, it killed about 675,000 in about a year — the same number who have died of AIDS in nearly 40 years.
As the country muddles through a particularly nasty flu season — one that the Centers for Disease Control says has killed 24 children in the first three weeks of January and 37 since the start of the flu season — the 1918 nightmare serves a reminder. If a virulent enough strain were to emerge again, a century of modern medicine might not save millions from dying.
“You think about how bad it was in 1918, and you think surely our modern medical technology will save us, but influenza is the Hollywood movie writer’s worst nightmare,” said Anne Schuchat, CDC’s deputy director, at a recent seminar on the 1918 pandemic. “We have many more tools than we had before, but they are imperfect tools.”
Carts filled with the dead
One hundred years ago, a third of the world’s population came down with what was dubbed the Spanish flu. (It got its name when the king of Spain, Alfonso XIII, his prime minister and several cabinet ministers came down with the disease.)
The flu brought life to a standstill, emptying city streets, closing churches, pool halls, saloons and theaters. Coffin makers couldn’t keep up with demand, so mass graves were dug to bury the dead. People cowered behind closed doors for fear they would be struck down.
In Philadelphia, news stories described priests driving carts through the streets, encouraging people to bring out the dead so that they might be buried.
In New York there were accounts of people feeling perfectly healthy when they boarded the subway in Coney Island and being taken off dead when they reached Columbus Circle.
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Entire families succumbed.
In Tyler County, West Virginia, John Linza, his wife and two of their sons died on the same day. Two other sons died just days before them. The last Linza, an infant, died the day after his parents.
In the southwestern tip of Virginia, J.W. Trent, his wife and two sons fell ill. They were preceded in death by all four of their young daughters — Hattie, Mary, Ellen and Ruby.
In 10 weeks, the flu killed 20,000 in New York City and produced 31,000 orphans.
There is debate among historians about where the flu first surfaced — did it come from China or a British encampment in northern France or rural Kansas? But it spread worldwide practically overnight.
By the end of November, 50,000 had died in South Africa, where at its peak flu killed 600 people each day. In Egypt, the death count reached 41,000 in Cairo and Alexandria by January. In Tahiti, trucks roamed the streets of Papeete to collect the dead, and great funeral pyres burned day and night to incinerate the bodies.
Normally the most vulnerable to influenza are infants, whose immune systems are not yet up to the test, and the elderly, whose ability to fight disease diminishes with age. In 1918, more than half the people it killed were in the prime of their lives.
Many died within hours, turning blue from lack of oxygen as they coughed foamy blood up from their lungs and bled from the nose, ears and eyes.
The Spanish flu infected the upper respiratory tract and then dove deep into the lungs with viral or bacterial pneumonia. How did it kill so many young healthy adults? Their immune systems attacked the influenza invader with such force that it killed them.
One Army doctor, quoted by historian John M. Barry, author of the bestseller, “The Great Influenza,” described the scene at a base hospital in Massachusetts:
“When brought to the [hospital] they very rapidly develop the most vicious type of pneumonia that has ever been seen. Two hours after admission they have the Mahogany spots over the cheek bones, and a few hours later you can begin to see [the blueness] extending from their ears and spreading all over the face. … It is only a matter of a few hours then until death comes. … It is horrible.”
Yet President Woodrow Wilson was unwilling to take any action that would compromise the war effort.
In early October, even as the disease was sweeping through military bases, killing soldiers and sailors by the thousands, U.S. Surgeon General Rupert Blue warned against rushing to see doctors with “mild cases of influenza.”
“The present generation,” Blue said, “has been spoiled by having had expert medical and nursing care readily available.”
Cowering in their homes
Then as now, the catch phrase was “a touch of the flu.” The flu rolled in every winter, enveloping people in a fog and fever that lasted a few days and lingered for a week or two. It was something to be endured, but not many people died from it.
And so it began in 1918.
To comprehend what came next — and why it is possible that a deadly strain of influenza could rear up 100 years later to kill tens of millions — requires an understanding of the disease.
The world’s most successful vaccinations against measles, polio, tetanus and small pox generally work in the same way. They introduce a minuscule amount of the disease so that if it ever arrives in full-blown form, the body will recognize and neutralize it with an immune system counter attack.
Influenza, however, never gives the immune system a stable target. Instead, it can transform itself into something that appears innocent to the white blood cells and enzymes intended to wage war against it.
That explains why a vaccine against the flu is a hit-or-miss proposition, based on the best guess of scientists about what flu strains are most likely to emerge six months later. This year the CDC estimates flu vaccines will be 30 percent effective against infection.
By early autumn the public face of America and the Western world had a gauze mask on it. People wore them to church, the military marched in them, police posed for photos in them and doctors wore them to visit patients. In Seattle, anyone who tried to board street cars without a gauze mask was arrested.
The masks served little purpose. The fine spray of a sneeze creates a cloud of more than half a million virus particles, and the virus can live for hours on any hard surface where they settle.
Four women who gathered to play bridge in Albuquerque in November prudently wore six-ply cloth masks. Three of them were dead the next day.
The frightening spread of the disease led to official and self-imposed quarantines.
Schools, theaters, bars and other gathering places were ordered closed. Mothers were told their children should be confined to their own yards. In New York, officials so feared transmission on overcrowded subways that they ordered people to work staggered shifts.
People cowered from contact with anyone who might carry the disease. A doctor in Philadelphia spoke of driving from the hospital to his suburban home without seeing another person or vehicle on the streets.
Many flu victims died in their homes of starvation, and not the disease, because they were too weak to seek food and no one dared bring it to them.
We are still vulnerable
A century later, science has revolutionized the medical profession, producing miracle drugs and surgical procedures that no one could have imagined in 1918.
But when Thomas Frieden stepped down as head of the CDC last year he was asked in an interview what keeps him awake at night.
“We always worry about pandemic influenza because this has the potential to kill so many people,” he said. “We stockpile antivirals for an emergency. But much more is needed to both track influenza better around the world and develop a better flu vaccine.”
A “touch of the flu” kills up to 646,000 people worldwide each year, sometimes as many as 56,000 of them in the United States. Since 1918, there have been three flu pandemics. (An epidemic is when an infectious disease spreads rapidly to many people. A pandemic is a global disease outbreak).
“Obviously, we still have no control over the virus,” said Barry, the historian who gave the keynote speech in 2004 when the National Academies of Science gathered to discuss pandemic influenza. “In a lot of ways, we’re arguably as vulnerable, or more vulnerable, to another pandemic as we were in 1918 because there’s more economic interdependence.”
A universal vaccine — one that will protect against every possible flu strain — isn’t expected to emerge any time soon.
“One hundred years after the lethal 1918 flu we are still vulnerable,” warned Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), at a Smithsonian seminar on the 1918 pandemic. “Without a universal vaccine, a single virus would result in a world catastrophe.”
Could a 1918 scenario could repeat itself?
“It’s clear that we have a much greater capacity to respond, and we would expect to respond more effectively to a 1918-like virus, but we could have [a strain] more transmissible and more severe,” Daniel Sosin, the CDC’s deputy director for preparedness said at a recent Council on Foreign Relations forum.
One of the scant protections against another pandemic is the global reporting system that tracks emerging strains. If a 1918-like flu were to present itself, the system would, at least, alert the rest of the world to its deadly potential.
Jeffery K. Taubenberger and Ann Reid were the first researchers to sequence the genome of the influenza virus that caused the 1918 pandemic.
“The most important thing to do is not just to understand 1918 as a historical phenomenon,” said Taubenberger, an NIAID virologist, “but as an example of what could happen in the future.”
A
Last edited by holley on Mon Jan 29, 2018 9:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Forecast

Postby holley on Mon Mar 26, 2018 5:02 am

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Disease X

Postby holley on Wed Mar 28, 2018 6:37 pm

"The World Health Organization included "Disease X" in its most recent global plan for accelerating research and development during health emergencies like the Ebola, SARS or Zika epidemics.

The strategy and preparedness plan, known as the 2018 R&D Blueprint, was published last month. So what, exactly, is Disease X?
This enigmatic name "represents the knowledge that a serious international epidemic could be caused by a pathogen currently unknown to cause human disease," according to the WHO.
"As experience has taught us more often than not the thing that is gonna hit us is something that we did not anticipate," said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. "Just the way we didn't anticipate Zika, we didn't think there would be an Ebola that would hit cities."
"X" stands for unexpected, he said." See more below

https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/12/health/d ... index.html
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Around the corner

Postby holley on Tue May 01, 2018 3:21 pm

Bill Gates suggests 30 million dead, more like 300 million.


https://www.facebook.com/ScienceAlert/p ... 2491212518
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