Pandemics

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holley
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It did not have to be this way....

Post by holley » Sat Jan 16, 2021 5:59 am

Over the past month, COVID-19’s death toll in the United States has regularly risen by roughly 2,000 or 3,000 a day. With numbers so large, the pain and heartbreak behind each individual death often doesn’t register.

Perhaps people would be less numb to the death toll if it were scaled down to a more human level. A change in time frame might help: Consider, for instance, that during the month of December, an average of about 1.7 people in the U.S. died from COVID-19 every minute.

https://www.theatlantic.com/family/arch ... a09mnO9u90
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holley
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Need to know when you get the shot

Post by holley » Sat Jan 23, 2021 11:33 am

It takes time for your body to build protection after any vaccination, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says, and the vaccines that require two shots may not protect you until a week or two after your second shot. “The protective effect begins to be observed from two weeks after the second vaccine injection,” Dr. El-Sadr says. She notes that the minimum follow-up for vaccine study participants was eight weeks and that information will evolve over time on the duration of protection.


https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-v ... 1610895600
'Every Day is a god, each day a goddess and holiness pours forth in time."

holley
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Things will get worse

Post by holley » Mon Jan 25, 2021 9:49 am

President Joe Biden: “The brutal truth is that things are going to get worse the next several months before they get better. We didn’t get into this mess overnight. It’s going to take time for us to turn things around.”

Top infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci said over the weekend there are concerns existing COVID vaccines could become less effective against new coronavirus variants. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said for the first time Friday the U.K. variant may be not just more infectious, but up to 30% more deadly, as well. Britain’s chief scientific adviser cautioned that evidence of the claim “is not yet strong” and that more research is needed.

https://www.democracynow.org/2021/1/25/ ... q4yZ6wzlRo
'Every Day is a god, each day a goddess and holiness pours forth in time."

holley
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B.1.1.7. 50% more contagious

Post by holley » Wed Jan 27, 2021 10:56 pm

A fast-spreading variant of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 has been found in at least 24 states, and people are wondering: How do I protect myself now?

We saw what the new variant, known as B.1.1.7, can do as it spread quickly through southeastern England in December, causing case numbers to spike and triggering stricter lockdown measures.

The new variant has been estimated to be 50% more easily transmitted than common variants, though it appears to affect people’s health in the same way. The increased transmissibility is believed to arise from a change in the virus’s spike protein that can allow the virus to more easily enter cells. These and other studies on the new variant were released before peer review to share their findings quickly.


https://theconversation.com/how-to-stay ... JW-SErsuew
'Every Day is a god, each day a goddess and holiness pours forth in time."

holley
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Calamity....unless

Post by holley » Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:29 am

“Paul Romer, the Nobel laureate economist, told me to think about it this way: The coming months are a race between three variables. There is the contagiousness of the virus itself. There are the measures we take to make it harder for the virus to spread, from lockdowns to masking. And there is the proportion of the country with protection against the virus, either because they’ve already caught it or because they’ve been vaccinated. If contagiousness is rising fast (and it is), then the measures we take to stop the spread or the measures we take to immunize the population need to strengthen faster. Romer’s modeling suggests that if we continue on our current path, delivering one million vaccinations a day and growing fatigued of lockdowns and masks, more than 300,000 could die in the coming months.

But calamity at that scale is a choice, not an inevitability. And so I’ve been asking health experts the same question: If you knew, with 100 percent certainty, that the coronavirus would be 50 percent more contagious six weeks from now, what would you recommend we do differently?

The most immediate danger is that optimism and exhaustion will overwhelm our common sense, and we will reopen just as the new strains are quietly building momentum. “Just in the last week or 10 days,” says Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, “a lot of state officials are looking at data of numbers coming down and asking me, ‘When can I reopen my restaurants to 75 percent? Bars have been closed for months, can I reopen bars now?’ It is true things are coming down but we are at a very high level. This is not the time to start letting up. This is the time to hunker down for what is likely to be a very difficult two or three months.”
'Every Day is a god, each day a goddess and holiness pours forth in time."

holley
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What's use of pretty good vaccine?

Post by holley » Fri Jan 29, 2021 5:04 pm

New vaccines are falling short of the spectacular expectations set by Pfizer and Moderna. The world still needs them.
Here's why:


https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... jMewYvh8pA
'Every Day is a god, each day a goddess and holiness pours forth in time."

holley
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The 5 variations

Post by holley » Fri Jan 29, 2021 7:06 pm

Here is a guide to novel versions of the COVID-causing virus—and genetic changes that can make them more contagious and evasive in the body

https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... Zm35LKQoVw
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The Days that We Die

Post by holley » Sat Jan 30, 2021 2:32 pm

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holley
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20-49

Post by holley » Tue Feb 02, 2021 8:58 am

Abstract
Following initial declines, in mid 2020 a resurgence in transmission of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) occurred in the US and Europe. As COVID19 disease control efforts are re-intensified, understanding the age demographics driving transmission and how these affect the loosening of interventions is crucial. We analyze aggregated, age-specific mobility trends from more than 10 million individuals in the US and link these mechanistically to age-specific COVID-19 mortality data. We estimate that as of October 2020, individuals aged 20-49 are the only age groups sustaining resurgent SARS-CoV-2 transmission with reproduction numbers well above one, and that at least 65 of 100 COVID-19 infections originate from individuals aged 20-49 in the US. Targeting interventions – including transmission-blocking vaccines – to adults aged 20-49 is an important consideration in halting resurgent epidemics and preventing COVID-19-attributable deaths.



https://science.sciencemag.org/content/ ... abe8372?[b][/b]utm_campaign=SciMag&utm_source=JHubbard&utm_medium=Facebook
'Every Day is a god, each day a goddess and holiness pours forth in time."

holley
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B1.1.248

Post by holley » Tue Feb 02, 2021 4:55 pm

Even in a year of horrendous suffering, what is unfolding in Brazil stands out. In the rainforest city of Manaus, home to 2 million people, bodies are reportedly being dropped into mass graves as quickly as they can be dug. Hospitals have run out of oxygen, and people with potentially treatable cases of COVID-19 are dying of asphyxia. This nature and scale of mortality have not been seen since the first months of the pandemic.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... nt/617891/
'Every Day is a god, each day a goddess and holiness pours forth in time."

holley
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Can vaccinated spread COVID ?

Post by holley » Wed Feb 03, 2021 9:00 pm

Do the Covid-19 vaccines prevent you from spreading the virus, or do they just protect you from getting sick? Scientists don’t know yet—and the uncertainty has big implications during the rollout of the vaccines.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/can-you-st ... 7SY7M65pIQ
'Every Day is a god, each day a goddess and holiness pours forth in time."

holley
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COVID broke the Flu-so far

Post by holley » Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:01 am

The same baffling trend is repeating itself nationwide, and around the globe. While the coronavirus has surged, the flu and other respiratory viruses have flickered out. Since early fall, about 800,000 laboratory samples have been tested in the United States for the flu and reported to the CDC, and only 1,500 or so have come up positive—a mere 0.2 percent. This time last year, close to 100 times as many flu cases had been identified from nearly the same number of tests. By the middle of the 2019–20 flu season, positivity rates were cresting at about 25 or 30 percent, mottling federal flu-activity maps in shades of red and orange, which denote the virus’s rampant spread. Now those maps remain almost entirely green, indicating low or minimal flu activity.



https://www.theatlantic.com/science/arc ... 91UKhdBUis
'Every Day is a god, each day a goddess and holiness pours forth in time."

holley
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On a brink

Post by holley » Fri Feb 05, 2021 8:07 am

Countries across the African continent are facing a second COVID-19 outbreak, linked to a variant first found in South Africa that has been detected in Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Comoros and Zambia and more than 20 non-African countries so far. There is concern new variants, which scientists believe are more infectious, could spread the virus further before widespread vaccination begins. More than 40 African countries have been hit by this second wave, and just six have received relatively small shipments of vaccines. John Nkengasong, director of the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, says the world faces “a moral catastrophe” without vaccine equity. “It has to be very clear that no part of the world will be safe until all parts of the world are safe,” he says. “We either come out of this together or we go down together. There’s no middle ground in this.”
'Every Day is a god, each day a goddess and holiness pours forth in time."

holley
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Here to stay......

Post by holley » Tue Feb 09, 2021 5:47 pm

Governments and businesses are starting to accept that the coronavirus isn’t a temporary problem and instead will lead to long-term changes enabling society to co-exist with Covid-19, as it does with flu, measles and HIV.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-vaccine ... DipQrI_sog
'Every Day is a god, each day a goddess and holiness pours forth in time."

holley
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Frankenvirus ?

Post by holley » Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:25 pm

Rereading John Barry’s book, that started this thread. He mentions viruses can merge. Wondering if this year’s flu virus can merge with COVID once quarantines are lifted and both viruses are in greater circulation ?
Pls post if you find anything on this.
'Every Day is a god, each day a goddess and holiness pours forth in time."

holley
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Frankenvirus

Post by holley » Tue Feb 09, 2021 9:09 pm

“New studies underscore how coronaviruses frequently mix their genetic components — which could contribute to the rise of dangerous variants, The New York Times reports: https://nyti.ms/3q0Ihct

Discover how new coronavirus variants formed around the world, and whether personal protective equipment and the new vaccines will successfully work against them”
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holley
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Safe to delay second dose?

Post by holley » Thu Feb 11, 2021 1:33 pm

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holley
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Two mutations merged

Post by holley » Wed Feb 17, 2021 8:05 am

The UK and California variants of coronavirus appear to have combined into a heavily mutated hybrid, sparking concern

https://www.onenewspage.com/n/World/1zn ... avirus.htm
'Every Day is a god, each day a goddess and holiness pours forth in time."

holley
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Wisdom and Pandemics

Post by holley » Wed Feb 17, 2021 10:56 am

“Wisdom is the ability to discern inner qualities and subtle relationships, then translate them into what others recognise as good judgment. If it comes to us at all, wisdom is the product of reflection, time and experience. A person might achieve wisdom after decades; a community after centuries; a culture after millennia. Modern human beings as a species? We’re getting there, and pandemics can help. If we persist in our curiosity and reflect on what we find, and if we survive the waves of disease to come, the wisdom of pandemics will come to us. Perhaps as soon as a few centuries from now.”


https://aeon.co/essays/viruses-are-not- ... long-story
'Every Day is a god, each day a goddess and holiness pours forth in time."

holley
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All of us

Post by holley » Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:44 am

This tiny coronavirus has showed us in a painful way that humanity is a single organism and human existence is possible only in relation to other living beings.

https://estonianworld.com/culture/arvo- ... x0WpBnhkH0
'Every Day is a god, each day a goddess and holiness pours forth in time."

holley
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NY Times

Post by holley » Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:15 pm

The beginning of the end?
There’s been a lot of encouraging news about the pandemic lately, and as cases have plummeted across the United States, and the world, some people are beginning to wonder — is the end of the pandemic finally within sight?
My colleague Apoorva Mandavilli, who covers science for The Times, set out to answer this question and spoke to 21 experts about the future of the pandemic in the U.S.
“Just about all of them were optimistic about the mid- to long-term future, certainly about the summer,” Apoorva said. At the very least, most scientists say they now believe that the worst of the pandemic is behind us.
But Apoorva also told me the experts were concerned about the next few weeks and the high likelihood of a “fourth wave” of new cases.
Virus cases across the U.S. already appear to be leveling off from the steep decline that began in January, and the federal government warned governors today against relaxing pandemic control measures. Whether Americans will be able to beat back a possible coming wave depends on a number of unknowns:
Human behavior. “The biggest variable is behavior,” Apoorva said, “and it explains both why cases have fallen so much in most of the world, but also why they might go up again.”
Scientists say that cases have fallen in the U.S. largely because states imposed restrictions around the holidays, and — perhaps more important — people actually followed the rules. But now, as the outlook has improved, governors are lifting restrictions and are under enormous pressure to reopen even more broadly. If that happens, cases driven by the new variants are likely to explode.
Variants. Apoorva told me that the more contagious variants are causing a “pandemic within a pandemic.” “We have the larger pandemic — the thing we’ve been dealing with since last year — and that is winding to a close,” she said. “But in the meantime, these variants have created a new set of problems.”
The U.S. has been slow to track the spread of the variants, and the declining infection rates may be giving people a false sense of security. If the variants spread in the U.S., as they have elsewhere, they’ll most likely drive a surge in cases.
Vaccines. The vaccines have turned out to be more effective than anyone could have hoped, preventing serious illness and death in nearly all recipients so far. But scientists worry about the variants from South Africa and Brazil, which have been able to reinfect people who already had the original version of the virus. Still, if the Biden administration can keep its promise to immunize every American adult by the end of the summer — a tall order since many say they don’t want a dose — the variants should be no match for the vaccines.
Which leads us to the good news.
The experts predicted that the last surge would subside in the United States sometime in the early summer. By then, large outbreaks could be a thing of the past. Infections, hospitalizations and deaths may drop to negligible levels — and enough, hopefully, to be able to safely reopen the country.
“My kids won’t be vaccinated by the summer, so I’m not thinking that we will travel anywhere in a big way,” Apoorva said. “But I am looking forward to seeing friends, at least outdoors, and I’m looking forward to the numbers being low enough that we don’t all have to be so afraid when we go outside our homes.”
Suicides on the rise
For many people, the isolation of the pandemic opened a Pandora’s box of mental health issues, exacerbating the pressures on some of the most vulnerable members of society.
According to surveys of young Americans coming into emergency rooms, rates of suicidal thinking and behavior are up by 25 percent or more from similar periods in 2019.
In Japan, job losses, urban isolation and household burdens have compounded societal pressures, leading to a troubling spike in suicides by women.
Vaccine rollout
In the U.S., people are becoming less hesitant about getting vaccinated. According to a new survey, 55 percent of adults now say they have either received one dose or will get it as soon as they can, up from 34 percent in December.
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holley
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...and the opportunity?

Post by holley » Wed Mar 03, 2021 8:38 pm

"A new consensus is emerging among scientists, according to Reuters interviews with 18 specialists who closely track the pandemic or are working to curb its impact. Many described how the breakthrough late last year of two vaccines with around 95% efficacy against COVID-19 had initially sparked hope that the virus could be largely contained, similar to the way measles has been.

But, they say, data in recent weeks on new variants from South Africa and Brazil has undercut that optimism. They now believe that SARS-CoV-2 will not only remain with us as an endemic virus, continuing to circulate in communities, but will likely cause a significant burden of illness and death for years to come."


https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN ... naEXV8mbYo
'Every Day is a god, each day a goddess and holiness pours forth in time."

holley
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Coming tornado

Post by holley » Sun Apr 04, 2021 6:23 pm

The United States is entering a new phase of the pandemic. Although we’ve previously described the most devastating periods as “waves” and “surges,” the more proper metaphor now is a tornado: Some communities won’t see the storm, others will be well fortified against disaster, and the most at-risk places will be crushed. The virus has never hit all places equally, but the remarkable protection of the vaccines, combined with the new attributes of the variants, has created a situation where the pandemic will disappear, but only in some places. The pandemic is or will soon be over for a lot of people in well-resourced, heavily vaccinated communities. In places where vaccination rates are low and risk remains high, more people will join the 550,000 who have already died.  



https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... JEExsmS4Zs
'Every Day is a god, each day a goddess and holiness pours forth in time."

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